Climate scientists can now predict the climate of the next 10 years with the help of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) Climate, an irregular oscillation of sea surface temperatures that predicts the temperature, found a study carried out by the University of Hyderabad (UoH) in collaboration with the University of Exeter.

This study has wide-ranging benefits for climate science and society. The newly emerging field of decadal prediction is about forecasting the climate for the next 5-20 years, helping stakeholders in decision making and strategising.

The research was carried out by Prof K Ashok, his PhD student Feba Francis and Prof Satish Shetye, a former Chair Professor of Centre for Earth, Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, University of Hyderabad. The UoH team collaborated with Prof Mat Collins of the University of Exeter.

The authors find that IOD has a longer prediction skill on a multi-year scale. They find that two models, MIROC5 from Japan and CanCM4 from Canada, show significant prediction skills for up to 10 years, with strongest leads up to two years. The analysis by the authors indicates that the lead skills and predictability of the IOD come from the subsurface ocean signals in the Antarctic Ocean.