The world may not achieve a 95% upper-secondary school completion rate until 2105 if current trends continue, according to UNESCO’s 2026 Global Education Monitoring (GEM) Report. Although more children are completing school than at the start of the century, progress remains too slow to bring near-universal completion within the coming decades.
UNESCO data show that the global primary completion rate rose from 77% in 2000 to 88% in 2024. Lower-secondary completion increased from 60% to 78%, while upper-secondary completion climbed from 37% to 61% over the same period. The upper-secondary figure means nearly four in 10 young people still do not complete that stage of education.
The report also points to a wider access problem. An estimated 273 million children and young people were out of school in 2024, equivalent to around one in six of the school-age population. The total has risen for seven consecutive years, with population growth, conflict and shrinking education budgets contributing to the challenge.
Late entry and grade repetition delay completion
Enrolling children in school does not necessarily mean they will complete each stage at the expected age. Late entry and grade repetition can push students several years behind their age group, particularly in low- and lower-middle-income countries.
UNESCO distinguishes between students who complete a level on time and those who finish later. Globally, the gap between timely and eventual completion at the lower-secondary level is four percentage points. In low-income countries, it widens to nine percentage points.
Grade repetition has declined since 2000, falling by 62% in primary education and 38% in lower-secondary education. However, the report notes that the number of children out of school has remained high even as completion rates have improved.
The disparity is particularly stark in low-income countries. In 2024, on-time completion stood at 60% for primary education, 37% for lower-secondary education and just 20% for upper-secondary education. Even when delayed completion is taken into account, the estimated rates were 71%, 46% and 25%, respectively.
Poverty and location shape who finishes school
The report identifies wealth and geography as major factors in unequal access to education. In low-income countries, for every 100 young people from the richest households who complete upper-secondary education, only 13 from the poorest households do so.
The rural-urban divide is also pronounced. In low-income countries, only 30 young people in rural areas complete upper-secondary education for every 100 in urban areas. Gender gaps vary by income group: in low-income countries, 79 young women complete upper-secondary school for every 100 young men, while the figure rises to 106 in high-income countries.
UNESCO has also warned that progress in keeping children in school has slowed across almost every region since 2015. Sub-Saharan Africa has experienced a particularly sharp slowdown, largely because population growth has outpaced gains in school participation. Conflict has further disrupted education, with more than one in six children living in areas affected by conflict, according to the report.
More enrolment has not resolved the completion gap
Despite the slow pace of progress, access to education has expanded substantially. UNESCO estimates that 1.4 billion students were enrolled in schools worldwide in 2024. Primary and secondary enrolment combined increased by 327 million since 2000, a rise of 30%.
But access alone has not ensured that students finish school. UNESCO's report says education policies need to account for local conditions and the barriers that keep children from attending regularly and progressing through each grade.
The report also highlights pressure on education funding. In 2024, median public spending on education stood at 4.2% of gross domestic product and 12.6% of total public expenditure. Only 41 of 183 countries with available data met both international spending benchmarks of at least 4% of GDP and 15% of public expenditure. Education aid also fell by 8% between 2023 and 2024, while aid directed to basic education dropped by 16%.
The 2105 estimate is based on the continuation of current trends, rather than a fixed deadline. UNESCO's figures indicate that reaching the target will require faster progress in helping students remain in school and complete upper-secondary education, particularly in countries where poverty, delayed entry and limited resources continue to restrict educational access.