THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: By 2051, men and women in Kerala are likely to live 10 years longer, according to a recent study, which also warns of fewer children among the state’s population by then. The state’s fertility rate, which is already the lowest in the country, is also expected to fall further in the coming 25 years, says the report by the International Institute of Migration and Development (IIMAD) and the Population Foundation of India.
Life expectancy of Kerala men is expected to rise from 70.4 years in 2021 to 80 in 2051 and that of women from 75.9 to 85.7, says the recently published ‘Unravelling India’s Demographic Future’ population projection report for states and union territories.
Kerala’s population will rise to 3.65 crores in 2041, before dipping to 3.55 crores 10 years later, says the study, while adding that the state will continue to be the oldest in the country in terms of its population’s age.
And continuing the current demographic trend, the proportion of children in Kerala’s population is expected to dip from the current 19.3% to 12.8% by 2051. The fertility rate, already the lowest in India at 1.5, will fall to 1.4, along with states like Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Maharashtra and Punjab, predicts the study.
‘6.8% of Kerala’s population to be above 80 by 2051’
The sex ratio at birth, however, is likely to remain unchanged in the state, whose population will also have the highest share of people aged above 80, around 6.8% of the total.
“With the rise in life expectancy and falling count of children, the rising number of senior citizens should be seen as critical. Our projections suggest one out of five people in the state’s voting population will be senior citizens by 2051,” says S Irudaya Rajan, chair, IIMAD, and principal investigator.
Stating that it is high time politicians and policymakers start addressing this, Rajan suggests considering rehiring people above the age of 60. “Increased investment in the higher education sector will also be beneficial for the state in the long run,” he opines.
For the study, 2011 Census base-year population was initially projected to 2021 by incorporating factors, including fertility, mortality and migration.
The story is reported by Aswin Asok Kumar of The New Indian Express
