As universities in the United States (US) gear up for the upcoming academic session starting in September, a steep decline in the number of international students could be on the horizon, as enrollment is projected to fall between 30 percent to 40 percent.
This was predicted in a new report by NAFSA, Association of International Educators, amid rising visa backlogs, and tighter immigration policies under US President Donald Trump’s administration.
As reported by NDTV, the NAFSA report estimates that total enrollment for the 2025-26 academic year could dip by 15 percent, meaning nearly 1,50,000 fewer international students than the previous year.
This drop threatens to cost the US economy around $7 billion, and result in over 60,000 job losses across the country.
“This would be one of the most significant drops in international enrollment in recent times. A major difference between now and then, however, is that these losses would be self-inflicted,” she added, referencing the COVID-era slump in admissions,” said NAFSA CEO Fanta Aw.
Visa restrictions to blame?
The report attributes the looming decline largely to a backlog in visa processing, caused by the months-long suspension of new appointments in March and April, key months when prospective students typically apply for their fall semester visas.
Despite the passing of peak application season, some US embassies have yet to resume regular scheduling of student visa interviews.
The situation has been exacerbated by a new directive from Secretary of State Marco Rubio, calling for more stringent social media screening of student visa applicants.
Embassies and consulates in countries such as India, China, South Korea, Japan, Ghana, and Nigeria, which historically send large numbers of students to the US, have reported the highest levels of appointment cancellations, or unavailability.
Students explore alternatives
With delays mounting and uncertainty growing, students are looking elsewhere for higher education opportunities.
According to NAFSA, the top destinations attracting international students who might have otherwise chosen the US include the United Kingdom (UK), Canada, Australia, China, and Germany.
As policy decisions continue to shape student mobility, the coming months may reveal how far-reaching the impact of these changes will be.
