The 2024 general elections will be a clash between Prime Minister Narendra Modi's projection as the 'Hindu Hriday Samrat' by the Bharatiya Janta Party (BJP) and the Congress-led alliance's focus on pressing issues affecting the common man, said Shashi Tharoor, Congress Working Committee (CWC) member and Member of Parliament. He shared his insights during a discussion on “Elections 2024: Will it be the Summer of 77?,” chaired by senior journalist Kaveree Bamzai, on the opening day of the two-day ThinkEdu Conclave 2024, presented by SASTRA University, in Chennai on Wednesday.
Tharoor delved into the state of the nation, emphasising economic concerns and questioning whether the common citizens are better off than they were a decade ago. In his critique, he highlighted the contrast between the government's claims of successful economic growth and the stark reality of rising unemployment and inflation.
"The government boasts of being the largest successful growth story amongst the major economies in the world. On the other hand, unemployment is at record levels and so is inflation. While NITI Aayog says that there are only 15 crore poor people in India, the government somehow needs to give 81 crore people free food grains. The government has disappointed large numbers of people,” said Tharoor, highlighting the plight of many young voters who, in 2014, anticipated abundant job opportunities under the BJP's leadership, only to face persistent unemployment. “They also expected the BJP to curb the fuel prices which only went up despite the international prices going down,” he said.
Discussing the appeal of the BJP narrative, Tharoor noted that the traditional narrative of India as a diverse democracy, treating every citizen equally regardless of caste, creed, religion, language, region, birth color, or skin, is now taken for granted due to its longstanding presence.
“Contrastingly, the BJP's rendition of the Indian narrative is not only refreshingly presented but also articulated with robustness by the Prime Minister. With majority support in parliament, the BJP benefits from media complicity that tends to favour one version over another,” he said, adding that disparity becomes evident when comparing the coverage of the Ram temple inauguration in Indian media with its portrayal in the international media.
However, he underscored the importance of focusing on the economy and the daily challenges faced by citizens. Drawing parallels with the sentiment of the 2004 elections, he highlighted that in the 1977 election, there was a significant rejection of a specific government.
“I'm not suggesting that kind of rejection. However, I will speak about 2004 when, similarly, there was a BJP government widely assumed to secure reelection. I don't see why that can't happen again," he expressed.
Tharoor expressed confidence in the Congress-led alliance's potential to bring about change, particularly in states where the BJP's stronghold might see a challenge. He hinted at a potential alliance among opposition parties post-election, sharing common concerns about unemployment and inflation.
“They have secured victories in all constituencies in Haryana, Rajasthan, and Gujarat, with only one seat lost in Madhya Pradesh and Bihar. The reality is that their potential losses are confined to these states, which is why the prevailing complacency in the ruling party appears devoid of any logical basis. Undoubtedly, there won't be an increase in seats in South India. A comprehensive victory is possible only for the constituent parties of the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance (INDIA) or, at the very least, for parties outside the BJP or NDA (National Democratic Alliance). Given these circumstances, I anticipate the BJP is in for a rude awakening," he asserted.
Analysing the outcomes of state elections, Tharoor explained that the Congress faced defeat in Rajasthan due to anti-incumbency sentiments and a perceived internal division within the party. He acknowledged the BJP for conducting an effective last-mile campaign, actively engaging with the electorate on multiple occasions.
“In Rajasthan, the vote difference was a mere two percent. In Madhya Pradesh, our expectations were higher, supported even by poll predictions. However, in Chhattisgarh, we encountered a setback, particularly in the Adivasi belt,” he said.
Tharoor anticipates that the BJP wouldn't delay the elections until April.
“I'm convinced that once Modi completes his second temple run by inaugurating the Hindu temple in Abu Dhabi on 14 February, they will announce the elections to project Modi as the Hindu Hridhaya Samrat. Our counter to that is to focus on the economy and address the challenges people have been facing in their daily lives. We need a government that prioritises these issues,” he asserted.
Discussing the potential repercussions of the BJP's divisive strategies on the southern states, Tharoor emphasised that thrusting the emphasis on Hindi onto the people of Tamil Nadu is untenable.
“The government’s exceptional stance, facilitated by the recent decisions of the Finance Commission, to drastically curtail allocations to the state has created a contentious situation. It's noteworthy that all the southern states contribute more in taxes to the central government than they receive in return. This has evolved into a significant point of contention,” said Tharoor.
Adding to the concerns, he noted that the BJP has clearly stated its intention not to renew the 91st amendment beyond 2026, which froze Lok Sabha constituencies based on the 1971 census.
“The proposed reapportioning of seats could tilt the majority in favour of the populous states in the Hindi belt, potentially exacerbating divisions and causing apprehension in the South. I hope that the message of unity and concerns about unemployment and inflation will resonate not only in the south but also in the north,” hinting at the possibility of support from various parties, even if not open to seat-sharing, for a Congress-led government post the elections.
He highlighted that the invitation placed every opposition party in a precarious position.
“Accepting it could be construed as playing into the BJP’s narrative, becoming unwitting supporting actors in the lead role production featuring Narendra Modi. On the other hand, declining the invitation might lead to accusations of being anti-Hindu,” clarifying that they would visit the temple on their terms, not when politically convenient for the BJP.
Responding to a question about Prime Minister Modi officiating a religious function, Tharoor expressed the view that it is not proper. Referencing Article 27 of the Constitution, which prohibits the state from using taxpayers' money for the promotion of any religion, he said – “Jawaharlal Nehru adhered to this principle, refraining from allocating government funds for the reconstruction of the Somnath temple in Sourashtra.”
