Published: 18th January 2022
COVID-19: Third wave has reached its peak in Delhi, Mumbai, Kolkata, says IIT Kanpur professor
He further said that southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will see the current wave peak next week
Dr Manindra Agrawal, Professor of IIT Kanpur, said that the third wave of COVID-19, which is caused by Omicron, has reached its peak in Delhi, Mumbai and Kolkata as predicted by IIT's Sutra model.
He further said that COVID-19 will peak in Maharashtra, Gujarat and Haryana this week. Earlier in an interview with ANI, Dr Agrawal, who developed the model, had predicted that the COVID-19 third wave will peak by January end. Dr Agrawal said that COVID-19 is spreading faster in India than projected earlier.
In a series of tweets, the IIT Professor said, "There appear two plausible reasons for this: 1) there are two groups in the population, one with less immunity against Omicron and the other with more. The mutant first spread in the first group causing a sharp rise. Now the first group is exhausted and so the spread is slower."
He further said, "Second, there was a lot of concern when Omicron started spreading, but in the last week or so, people almost everywhere have concluded that it causes only mild infection and have decided to handle it with standard remedies instead of getting tested."
"In Maharashtra, it is predicted to peak on January 19. May peak sooner since the trajectory is almost flat at present. Gujarat is predicted to peak on January 19. Haryana is predicted to peak on January 20," he added. He further said that southern states like Andhra Pradesh, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu will see the current wave peak next week.
"In Karnataka, the COVID-19 wave is predicted to peak on January 23. A new phase just started and Tamil Nadu has been predicted to peak on January 25. Trajectory has started deviating. Andhra Pradesh is predicted to peak on January 30. No deviation yet from the predicted trajectory. Probably because of the spread at a very early stage," he tweeted.
"However, Haryana is predicted to peak on January 20. Now some states like Assam are predicted to peak on January 26. No phase change yet, but the blue curve is suggesting there will be one soon," he added