Remember the Sutra model by IIT Kanpur that predicted the second wave of COVID almost accurately? Professor Manindra Agarwal who worked on it said that the third wave of the pandemic will end by April. The scientist, however, warned that rallies during elections can prove to be a super spreader for Corona, as it is not easy to follow the COVID guidelines in such gatherings. Agarwal said that as a large number of people reach the election rallies without following the guidelines, the risk of infection increases to a great extent.
"In such a situation, there is a need to be careful. If there are rallies, the transition can pick up ahead of time," he said. According to Agarwal, who bases his predictions of the epidemic on the basis of his mathematical model, the third wave will come in India in January and in March, 1.8 lakh cases can come daily. "It will be a matter of relief that only 1 in 10 will need a hospital. Two lakh beds will be needed in the middle of March," he said.
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He further said that 80 per cent of the population in Africa and India is below 45 years of age. Natural immunity is up to 80 per cent in both countries. In both countries, the delta variant has been due to mutants. Like South Africa, India too is less likely to have a major impact, he claimed.
