Published: 11th May 2021
What The FAQ: What can we expect in the COVID-19 third wave? Who are most at risk?
When COVID first came to India, only the elderly or senior citizens were alerted along with people with severe respiratory trouble and comorbidities. A lot has changed since then
As India is still reeling under the second wave of COVID-19, experts say that a third wave is imminent and it might strike us in October this year. Recently, the Supreme Court of India also warned the Modi government of the third wave and advised the government to be prepared. The court suggested that it is pertinent that the government create a buffer stock to prevent any panic among the public which might worsen the situation. They should have a pan-India approach, said the apex court. but what do we really know about the third wave so far?
Is it 'inevitable'?
Dr K Vijay Raghavan, the principal scientific advisor to the central government said that it is "inevitable" that India will see a third wave too after the deadly second wave blows over. He was addressing a press conference on India's current COVID-19 situation. Dr Raghavan said that it cant be said when the third wave will come or how bad it would be but given the fact that we are detecting new variants every other day, we should be ready for it, "We can't predict the timing, but it seems inevitable. We must prepare ourselves and be ready for it."
When will the third wave come?
The Principal Scientific Advisor might not have an inkling but the researchers from IIT Kanpur have an estimation. Based on their mathematical model, they predicted that India may face the third wave of COVID-19 infections in October. However, the impact of this third wave cannot be predicted. The IIT Kanpur researchers said that they study they have conducted and the mathematical model formula has led them to believe that the COVID-19 situation in Maharashtra has already peaked and will start declining while Uttar Pradesh, Delhi, Gujarat and West Bengal at their peak right now and will start coming down soon.
Who are more at risk?
When COVID first came to India, only the elderly or senior citizens were alerted along with people with severe respiratory trouble and comorbidities. A lot has changed in the past year and a half. Now, newborns and children are also being affected and this is a serious problem for the health department. They are not just super-spreaders anymore. They are being counted in the patients' lists as well. The mucormycosis fungal infection or the black fungus is also one reason for that.
Should big functions be stopped completely?
IIT Kanpur professor, Dr Maninder Agarwal, told the media that he believes that it might not have a correlation as Maharashtra and Delhi are the worst off now and both these places had no rallies and no Kumbh.
According to the IIT study, Uttar Pradesh may report upto 35,000 cases, Delhi upto 30,000 cases, 11,000 in West Bengal, 10,000 in Rajasthan and 9000 in Bihar when they are at their respective peaks.