While the similarities between the causes of the recent upheavals in Dhaka and Kathmandu have been highlighted, the differences in administrative reactions are also telling. The interim government in Nepal has promised to hold elections within 6 months, whereas Bangladesh’s interim government has procrastinated by insisting on reforms before elections. Facing domestic and international pressure, the Muhammad Yunus regime has finally proclaimed elections will be held in February 2026—more than 17 months after Sheikh Hasina was overthrown.
The Yunus regime is in a vice-like grip of Jamaat-e-Islami, the country’s foremost Islamist organisation, and of the Islamist-oriented student leaders who led the revolt against Hasina. Promising sweeping reforms and establishing several commissions to recommend them are the hallmarks of the Yunus regime. The regime has facilitated the rise of Islamist parties and other radical groups. Lawlessness has continued despite the presence of a combined army-police force.
Human rights organisations have logged thousands of incidents of communal violence against minorities— mainly Hindus, but also Buddhists, Christians, Ahmadis, and Sufi groups. Many such attacks were pre-planned and the Yunus-regime has remained a spectator at best. A February 2025 UN report accused the interim government of failing to act against the perpetrators of communal violence.
The international concern on persecution of minorities led Yunus to visit the revered Dhakeshwari temple and publicly say the right things: “Whatever faith or ideology one follows, whether rich or poor, every person is first and foremost a citizen. All rights of citizens are guaranteed in the Constitution.” Yunus visited the temple along with A F M Khalid Hossain, the religious affairs advisor to the interim government who is also vice-president of the radical organisation Hefazat-e-Islam.
Hefazat has demanded Islamisation of Bangladesh by introducing Sharia law, removing all statues from public places, changing the national anthem written by Rabindranath Tagore, and expunging all text from school books written by Hindu writers. It spearheaded the campaign against Chinmoy Das, who had called on Hindus to demand their rights as citizens.
The hypocrisy has not gone unnoticed— Das languishes in prison, accused of treason and denied bail, while Durga idols are being broken at more than 10 places. Violence between Muslim sects has also skyrocketed over doctrinal interpretations, control of religious sites, and political influence, erupting in clashes between Wahabi, Salafi, and Deobandi groups.
A notable feature is the space given to radical organisations like the Hizb-ut-Tahrir, which marched on the streets of Dhaka demanding an Islamic caliphate. Islamists have also demanded that music and dance teachers in schools be replaced by religious teachers. A new alliance of Islamist parties has taken over the streets led by Jamaat, and supported by Islami Andolan, Khelafat Majlis, Nizam-e-Islam Party, Khelafat Andolan, and Jatiya Ganatantrik Party. While the mainstream parties want the elections expedited, the Islamist alliance wants them postponed and proportional representation introduced.
Islamists have never bagged more than 20 of the 350 parliamentary seats and the National Citizen Party (NCP), the new party formed by students, will be a first-timer. The procrastination on holding national elections is feared to be related to creating an uneven political field, cleansed of rivals to the Jamaat, its Islamist allies and the NCP.
The recent Dhaka University union election was a clear signal. The Islami Chattra Shibir, Jamaat’s youth wing, unexpectedly won 23 of the 28 positions. Some observers attributed the result to anger and fatigue against the mainstream parties, Awami League and Bangladesh Nationalist Party.
The Jamaat, regarded the fifth-column of Pakistan since the 1971 Liberation War, has burnished its credentials by adapting and cultivating younger generations through social programmes. It has also expressed regret for its 1971 role in dribbles, hoping to influence youths who have no memory of the bloody war. Jamaat and Shibir are also fairly disciplined and not tainted by corruption because they have been out of power for long. For first-time voters, changing the status quo holds greater priority than Jamaat’s past.
In this mix has emerged a new player—the Dacca Institute of Research & Analytics—allegedly with support from a ‘planner’ of the August revolution and funds from the US and Turkey. Clearly, the organisation’s objective, as laid out on its new website, is to influence politics through the prism of the July revolution.
Meanwhile, geopolitical contestation over Bangladesh has intensified. Operation Pacific Angel 25-3, a week-long joint military exercise between the US and Bangladesh militaries was recently conducted with around 1,000 American service personnel airlifted to Chittagong near Myanmar’s Rakhine province. In an act of balancing, the Bangladesh Army also announced that it participated in Zapad 2025, a joint strategic exercise in Russia, during September.
Knowing that China will be suspicious of military exercises with the US and reports about St Martin’s island being used to set up US military facilities, Yunus made a grand statement that Bangladesh would move forward hand in hand with China to advance their comprehensive strategic cooperation. American forces are said to have been barred from the island.
Bilateral ties with India remain strained. The Yunus regime has slapped hundreds of cases of corruption and murder against Hasina and her family members. Selected trade and visa restrictions have been imposed by India on Bangladesh. Notwithstanding these restrictions, food, cotton, yarn, electricity, fuel, and many other items are still being traded. The marginal growth of about 4 percent in Indian exports during 2024-25 shows trade has been insulated from the tensions.
Bangladesh’s posturing about diversifying trade with Pakistan causes Delhi to worry about security. But supply-demand imperatives remain crucial binding factors between the immediate neighbours. Besides, Bangladesh imports more than 15 percent of its electricity from India.
India’s core concern will remain security and the capture of political power through manipulated elections by forces inimical to India. But despite all this, Delhi will engage with whichever government comes to power in Dhaka.
Pinak Ranjan Chakravarty | Former Secretary, Ministry of External Affairs, and former High Commissioner to Bangladesh
(Views are personal)