HYDERABAD: As Telangana braces for the coming months, the looming arrival of El Nino is expected to reshape the state’s weather beyond a typical summer-to-monsoon transition, bringing intensified heat and a more uneven rainfall pattern.
Meteorologists say timing will be critical. An early onset, possibly by late May, could mean prolonged heat through May and June, followed by a disrupted monsoon. “If El Nino sets in early, even the initial monsoon months can get affected, and we may see breaks in rainfall much sooner than expected,” said GNRS Srinivas Rao from the India Meteorological Department, Hyderabad.
El Niño, the abnormal warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, weakens the atmospheric circulation driving the Indian monsoon. “When the Pacific warms on the eastern side, the circulation that supports monsoon flow toward India becomes weaker; this directly affects how much moisture actually reaches the subcontinent,” the experts added.
The impact is already visible in rising temperatures, with April readings touching 44-45°C in several regions. “If the current trend continues, heatwave conditions could persist into May and even spill into June. The concern is not just daytime heat, but also the nights, which are no longer cooling down the way they used to,” Srinivas Rao noted.
In Hyderabad, rapid urbanisation has intensified the urban heat island effect, trapping heat even after sunset. “Earlier, even if days were hot, nights used to be cooler because of elevation and wind flow,” the expert pointed out. “Now, buildings and roads absorb heat during the day and release it at night, so temperatures remain high even after sunset.”
Beyond heat, the concern lies in rainfall distribution. India may receive around 92% of its long-period average, but experts say timing and spread matter more. “It’s not just about how much rain we get, but when and how we get it. El Nino years often bring rainfall in short, intense spells followed by long dry periods, which is far more problematic,” Srinivas Rao added.
This has direct implications for Telangana’s agriculture and water resources, which depend on rivers like the Krishna and Godavari. “Even if Telangana gets local thunderstorms, they cannot replace the large-scale inflows we depend on,” the official explained. “If upstream rainfall is deficient, reservoir levels will be affected, and that impacts both irrigation and drinking water.”
Uncertainty also surrounds monsoon onset. “We could see early rains, but if El Nino strengthens, there could be a prolonged break afterwards, and in such cases, even June can behave like a summer month, with heat conditions returning despite the monsoon period,” Srinivas Rao warned.
The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) adds another variable. “Right now, the IOD is neutral, but if it turns positive later in the season, it may help improve rainfall during August and September; however, that still means the early part of the monsoon could remain weak or erratic,” IMD Hyderabad director K Nagaratna said.
Across Telangana, the season is likely to be defined more by variability than extremes, with sharper heat in northern districts, sustained temperatures in central areas and near-normal but irregular rainfall in southern and eastern regions.
Experts stress that El Nino signals a shift, not a failure, of the monsoon. “There will be rain, but it may not come when you need it. You may get heavy rainfall in a few days and then nothing for weeks,” K Nagaratna said, adding, “These are not new phenomena, but their impact is becoming more visible due to changing land use and rising demand for water.”
As the season unfolds, the challenge will lie not just in how much it rains, but how unpredictably it does so.
No Mercy
■ Until April, TG didn’t witness any heatwaves, only warnings
■ May to see atleast 5 to 6 heatwaves
■ In June, there will be atleast 15 to 16 days of heatwaves
This story is written by Khyati Shah