According to a study conducted by researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology (IIT), Gandhinagar, the frequency of extreme weather events, such as floods and heatwaves, is expected to increase significantly in India in the future as a result of climate change.
To estimate India's likelihood of consecutive extremes, such as summer heatwaves and excessive rainfall during the subsequent summer monsoon season across various locations in the country, the research team looked at the years 1951 to 2020. One such example of extreme climatic conditions is the heatwave and flood in Pakistan this year that affected millions of people. Similar climatic extremes have occurred in India this year with large impacts on agricultural production, public health and infrastructure said the researchers of IIT Gandhinagar, as reported by PTI.
El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a recurrent climatic pattern that involves fluctuations in the temperature of waters in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, and variability were both factors in the study, which was published in the One Earth journal on Friday, November 18.
Vimal Mishra, Professor, Civil Engineering and Earth Sciences, at IIT Gandhinagar in Gujarat, told PTI, "The frequency of sequential extremes is projected to rise manifold in the future due to climate change. The fraction of the total population and urban area exposed to sequential extremes will increase rapidly if the global mean temperature rises above 1.5 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial level." The researchers emphasised that vulnerability reduction and climate mitigation could aid in lowering the risk of extreme climatic changes. According to the report, mega-heatwaves hit the country sequentially in the summers of 1995 and 1998, affecting 20% and 8% of the country respectively.
According to the researchers, the area affected by the sequential extremes is noticeably larger during the positive phase (El Nino) than the negative phase. According to the study, if the global mean temperature increases by more than 1.5 degrees Celsius from the pre-industrial level, the proportion of the entire population and urban area that will be exposed to successive extremes will climb quickly, as reported by PTI.
According to the researchers, under the lowest emission scenario, the length of a heatwave will grow from an average of 3 days in the current climate (1981-2010) to 11 days by the end of the twenty-first century (2071-2100). Under the scenario with the highest emissions, however, they predicted that the length of heat waves would increase to 33 days by the end of the century. The study discovered that with an increase in the world means temperature over the pre-industrial level, the percentage of India's population exposed to sequential extremes will increase significantly as reported by PTI.
For instance, it was noted that the median population exposure rises from 27% at 1.5 degrees Celsius to 36% and 45% at 3 and 4 degrees Celsius, respectively. The researchers also observed that to retain the same risk (at 1.5 degrees Celsius global warming level) at greater global warming levels, a significant reduction in vulnerability will be required and the upgradation of socioeconomic livelihood and infrastructure.
Mishra said, "Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Chhattisgarh, and Karnataka have a higher projected risk of sequential extremes than the other states. The risk of sequential extremes can rise up to 10 times for a few states if global mean temperature rises by 3 degrees Celsius." The researchers also noted that the population of the country will experience adaptation challenges owing to severe heat waves in the summer and extreme rainfall in the monsoon season, stated the PTI report.
