Published: 24th December 2021
IIT-K researchers estimate third wave of COVID-19, driven by Omicron, will peak in early February
Drawing from data available on first and second waves, the researchers used a statistical tool called Gaussian Mixture to predict the timelines of the upcoming wave
Researchers at IIT Kanpur (IIT-K) have predicted that a third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic, which may be triggered by the new Omicron variant, may peak in India by February 3, 2022.
A report, published in the online preprint health server MedRxiv, said, "Following the trends around the world, this project report forecasts India's third wave may start around mid-December and peak in the beginning of February." The team used a statistical tool called the Gaussian Mixture model to predict the third wave.
The research report used the data of the first and second waves in India, and the current rise in cases triggered by Omicron in various countries, to predict a possible third wave in the country.
The researchers said the study suggests the cases reach peak value after 735 days from our initial observation date, which is January 30, 2020, when India reported its first official case of COVID-19. So, the cases start rising around December 15, 2021, and the peak of the third wave will occur on Thursday, February 3, 2022.
The research team, drawn from the department of mathematics and statistics, IIT-K, included Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh.